Assignment (Due April 15):
1) What is the Demographic Winter?
2) What is the cause/causes?
3) What are the consequences?
4) Critique an argument (about 200 words).
Lucy Harrelson 1) A demographic winter is when there are economic consequences due to decline in population. 2) The cause of a demographic winter is because of population decline and the cause of exponential population decline is because of the decline in fertility rates. The movie relates fertility decline to five things prosperity, sexual revolution, individualism, women's revolution, and divorce revolution. 3) The consequence of these five changes in society is the decline in fertility. This then leads to the decline in population exponentially. This decline in population through fertility decline then affects the human capital and has less younger people supporting more older people. This, according to the video, puts a lot of strain on the economic growth. 4) They are making a big deal out of the situation. Population decline is something bound to happen because withstanding a continuous growing population is not possible. They say that exponential population decrease is possible, but this does not account for fluctuating populations. Looking at demographic charts shows how populations may fluctuate at different age groups and yes there can be times where the old outnumber the young. This does not constitute that the future populations will exponentially drop. Populations can just fluctuate without devastation on the economy.
Kelly Abruscato 1) A demographic winter is the fertility decline as well as the economic consequences. 2) The cause of the demographic winter is the overall decline of the population due to the declining rate of fertility. One cause mentioned in the film was that during the time of the industrial revolution, medicine advanced (causing people to no long “drop like flies”). However, sup-replacement fertility in the 1970’s many people in the world became very alarmed by how fast the population was growing which made them fear how they were going to be able to feed the population and what would this do to the environment. Parallel to this time was the population bomb, which was when people were having smaller and smaller families, which made fertility rates fall and have continued to fall since then. 3) The consequence of the demographic winter is the strain on the economic growth as well as human capital. 4) The main number that this argument is concerned with is 2.13. This number has been recorded since 1971 when the number of children in a family in the U.S. had dropped to below 2.13. Demographers call this number “the replacement fertility rate”. This means that if fertility is above 2.13 children per woman than the populations will continue to grow in the future. However, with fertility below 2.13 children per woman, the population will eventually decline. I am criticizing the small sample size that was given in this film to only being U.S. White Women whom in the year 1970’s (mid) the total fertility for 80% of women was 1.80. Given the fact that this number hasn’t changed much since the mid 1970’s; this completely ignores statistics for all women whom don’t fall under the category of “U.S. and white.”
Lucy Harrelson
ReplyDelete1) A demographic winter is when there are economic consequences due to decline in population.
2) The cause of a demographic winter is because of population decline and the cause of exponential population decline is because of the decline in fertility rates. The movie relates fertility decline to five things prosperity, sexual revolution, individualism, women's revolution, and divorce revolution.
3) The consequence of these five changes in society is the decline in fertility. This then leads to the decline in population exponentially. This decline in population through fertility decline then affects the human capital and has less younger people supporting more older people. This, according to the video, puts a lot of strain on the economic growth.
4) They are making a big deal out of the situation. Population decline is something bound to happen because withstanding a continuous growing population is not possible. They say that exponential population decrease is possible, but this does not account for fluctuating populations. Looking at demographic charts shows how populations may fluctuate at different age groups and yes there can be times where the old outnumber the young. This does not constitute that the future populations will exponentially drop. Populations can just fluctuate without devastation on the economy.
Kelly Abruscato
ReplyDelete1) A demographic winter is the fertility decline as well as the economic consequences.
2) The cause of the demographic winter is the overall decline of the population due to the declining rate of fertility. One cause mentioned in the film was that during the time of the industrial revolution, medicine advanced (causing people to no long “drop like flies”). However, sup-replacement fertility in the 1970’s many people in the world became very alarmed by how fast the population was growing which made them fear how they were going to be able to feed the population and what would this do to the environment. Parallel to this time was the population bomb, which was when people were having smaller and smaller families, which made fertility rates fall and have continued to fall since then.
3) The consequence of the demographic winter is the strain on the economic growth as well as human capital.
4) The main number that this argument is concerned with is 2.13. This number has been recorded since 1971 when the number of children in a family in the U.S. had dropped to below 2.13. Demographers call this number “the replacement fertility rate”. This means that if fertility is above 2.13 children per woman than the populations will continue to grow in the future. However, with fertility below 2.13 children per woman, the population will eventually decline. I am criticizing the small sample size that was given in this film to only being U.S. White Women whom in the year 1970’s (mid) the total fertility for 80% of women was 1.80. Given the fact that this number hasn’t changed much since the mid 1970’s; this completely ignores statistics for all women whom don’t fall under the category of “U.S. and white.”